(See Clinton, Hillary 2016.) White House winners are usually charismatic leaders with their fingers on the nation’s pulse, and Harris falls short on both. So what if in early 2023 her ratings are still low, and general election match-up polls show her losing to most or all potential GOP opponents? How then do Democratic presidential candidates wage a primary campaign to defeat the incumbent vice president who is the first minority woman to hold that office?ĥ) Will Democrats elect Harris as their nominee because it’s “her turn”? Historically, the “it’s their turn” strategy does not end well for either party. And Harris’s RealClearPolitics average favorable rating is 40 percent with 51 percent unfavorable. 3, 2019.Ģ) Will Harris pressure Biden to announce his 2024 plans early? Then she could begin acting like a president-in-waiting while potentially keeping her primary opponents at bay.ģ) If Biden announces that he will be a one-term president, when will he endorse Harris as his successor? Or will Biden choose to mimic Obama in 2020? Remember, Obama held off endorsing his former vice president until April 14, after Biden had clinched the nomination - most likely to avoid embarrassment.īut will Harris even want Biden’s endorsement if his job approval rating is below 40 percent? In that case, will she seek to separate herself from him? Any of these scenarios will be an awkward, clumsy dance between Joe and Kamala.Ĥ) At the heart of the Harris 2024 conundrum are her consistently dismal job approval ratings - the latest at 28 percent with 51 percent disapproving. But she quickly flamed out and withdrew on Dec. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) announced her 2020 presidential aspirations on Jan. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) announced his 2008 presidential campaign on Feb. Nearly two years are needed for an organizational build-up to raise the megamillions of dollars required to wage a successful presidential primary campaign.įor example, then-Sen. But more consequential is the national security perspective if enemies think a “defeated” Biden signals an opportune time for aggression.Ĭonversely, the longer Biden delays his announcement, the more those seeking the nomination will be handicapped. So, naturally, attention then shifts to the Democrats’ presidential horse race. ![]() Herein lies the dilemma: The earlier Biden announces his lame-duck status, the more his power decreases, reflecting the aura of a failed presidency. If the midterms turn out to be a Democratic repudiation, stick a fork in Joe Biden’s presidency and expect the following questions to occupy copious amounts of cable bandwidth.ġ) When will Biden announce that he is not running for reelection?Ĭertainly earlier than President Lyndon Baines Johnson when he announced his decision not to seek a second term on Maonly eight months from Election Day. Harris violated a cardinal political rule - never publicly state the future meaning of a race that your candidate could lose - and her candidate was walloped. ![]() In the final days of the tight Virginia gubernatorial race, while campaigning with Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe, Harris displayed a stunning lack of political savvy when she said, “What happens in Virginia will, in large part, determine what happens in 2022, 2024 and on.” But with inflation soaring, their nightmare is the 2022 midterm elections warning of a red tidal wave, with Republicans likely to win control of the House and perhaps the Senate.Īnd the wave could crush Harris if she stars in a potential Republican attack ad. Maybe now Biden is rethinking his March 25 statement: “My plan is to run for reelection, that’s my expectation.” After all, Biden’s “expectation” might be thwarted by the growing perception that he is a weak leader not up to the task of governing and shaken by the shellacking Democrats received in last week’s elections.ĭemocratic strategists dream of a turnaround after a potential string of legislative victories. Also, 64 percent of the registered voters surveyed opposed Biden running for reelection, including 28 percent of Democrats.įurthermore, a mid-October NPR-Marist poll revealed that 44 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents thought “someone else” besides Biden would have the best chance of winning the presidency. ![]() Let’s start with the foundational problem: her boss, President Biden.Ī USA Today-Suffolk University poll conducted last week had Biden’s job approval rating dipping to 38 percent, with 59 percent disapproving. The Democrats have a 2024 conundrum, with heir apparent Vice President Harris presenting a maze of questions and complications.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |